Data show that in 2017, domestic automobile production and sales increased steadily, commercial vehicles increased significantly year on year increase; passenger car production and sales showed a slight growth trend, terminal sales pressure. China's import car market showed a rapid rebound in imports, continued inventory replenishment, the trend of weak recovery in terminal sales; industry deposit depth steady, dealer inventory at a reasonable level and so on. Parallel Imported Vehicles Encouraged by a series of favorable policies, the market is growing rapidly.
On November 26, SINOMACH released the "Research Report on the Development of China's Imported Automobile Market (2017-2018)" on the import of automobile industry and the related policies, and looked forward to the pattern of the import and export automobile industry and the development trend of the market.
The report predicts that in 2018, affected by the complete withdrawal of preferential tax policies for purchase of vehicles of 1.6L and below, the auto market in China is expected to show a slight increase. The report predicts that the basic balance between supply and demand in the imported automobile market in China will be basically balanced in 2018, and the period of replenishing the inventory ends with a single-digit increase in both the import volume and the sales volume of the customs. Parallel imported car market will further expand the scale, the proportion will continue to improve. It is recommended that multinational auto companies objectively analyze the Chinese market environment to set sales targets for 2018 and explore the development of parallel import channels.
The weak recovery of imported terminal sales in 2017, the import of new energy vehicles increased, and the parallel imported car market further expanded
The sales volume of domestic vehicles increased steadily, while the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased significantly. According to the data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September 2017, auto sales and sales totaled 20,349,200 and 20,224,500 respectively, up 4.8% and 4.5% from the same period of last year. Passenger car production and sales 17.38 million units and 17.1550 million units, an increase of 3.0% and 2.4%, slower than expected growth; commercial vehicles production and sales 3.01 million and 3.074 million, an increase of 16.0% and 17.9% respectively over the previous year.
Import car inventory continued to cover up, the terminal sales weak recovery. As a result of inventory replenishments, China imported a total of 888,000 imported vehicles, an increase of 18.2% over the previous year and a 21.6 percentage point increase from the negative growth of 3.4% for the full year of 2016. Dealers delivered 6,640,000 imported cars to customers, representing an increase of 1.9% over the same period of last year, reversing the decline in 2015-2016 but recovering weaker.
In terms of industrial inventories, the inventories of imported automobile industry were at a relatively stable level in 2017, with the supply and demand in the market in a state of equilibrium. The industry inventory in September was 3.5 months, returning to the level of 2012-2013. The inventory of imported dealers in September was 1.23 months, From January to September 2017, all three models achieved growth with SUV up 15.2%. The growth rate was the lowest among the three major models, with the share remaining below 60%. In terms of vehicle structure, Volume structure, the proportion of displacement below 3.0L decreased slightly, 1.5-2.0L share continued to rise, reaching 45.2% for four consecutive years as the maximum range.
Imports of new energy vehicles, January-September 2017 imported 17,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of more than 80.3%, while new energy vehicles accounted for 1.9% of the total import volume; Tesla's import volume reached 13,700 units, up An increase of 144.3%, driving a substantial increase in the size of pure electric import models, the share increased to 86.7%.
With regard to parallel import of automobiles, the parallel imported car market grew rapidly in 2017 with a series of favorable policies, showing five characteristics: the rapid growth of parallel import cars, which in turn contributed to the further increase of the overall market share of imported cars; the SUV was absolutely the main force Models, pickups, sedans and MPV accounted for less than 5%; large displacement models, 2.0-4.0L displacement range accounted for nearly Jiucheng; Toyota brand a horse ahead, the first six major brands of high concentration; Tianjin Port The status of parallel imported cars is hard to shake. Other ports share below 6%.
In 2018, the basic balance between supply and demand in China's imported automobile market will be covered and the inventory cycle will be completed. The market scale of parallel imported vehicles will be further expanded
In 2018, China's economy has shifted from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development, and is now in the process of tackling the problem of transforming its mode of development, optimizing its economic structure and transforming its growth momentum. It is expected that the development characteristics of "steady growth and quality improvement" in the macroeconomy will continue; In terms of industrial policies, the formal promulgation of the Guidance Catalog for Foreign Investment Industries (Revised in 2017), the Administrative Measures on Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points for Passenger Vehicles, the market scale of new energy vehicles is expected to further expand in the future. The market The competition will be even more fierce; the "Administrative Measures on the Administration of Automobile Sales" was put into effect on July 1, 2017, and its role in promoting the healthy development of the automobile market, maintaining fair and equitable market order and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of consumers will be gradually revealed. The domestic automobile The market has entered a new normal with moderate growth and increasingly fierce market competition.
Affected by the complete exit of preferential tax policies for purchase of vehicles under 1.6L and below, the auto market in China is expected to show a slight growth in 2018; in terms of new product supply, 43 imported new cars are launched from Q4 2017 to 2018 according to incomplete statistics In the Chinese market, the new model of "sales volume" is limited, which will have a limited impact on the overall sales volume of imported cars. The market scale of parallel imported vehicles will further expand and the proportion will continue to increase. It will be the focus of the next phase to control the number of pilot enterprises, improve the management level of pilot enterprises, establish and improve the exit mechanism of pilot enterprises.
Based on the above factors, the report analyzes that in 2018, it is expected that the basic balance between supply and demand in the imported automobile market in China will be covered and the period of stock replenishment will end. The customs import volume and sales volume will show a single-digit growth trend.
Source: I love tram network