Although the prices of rare earths have declined in recent months, they have not affected the market supply of permanent magnetic materials. Benefit from the development of new energy vehicles, wind power generation, frequency appliances and other emerging industries, the demand for rare earth permanent magnet material rapid growth. After calculation, it is estimated that the growth rate of rare earth permanent magnet demand in China will be about 15.2% in the future.
In the rare earth permanent magnet demand driven by the expected next few years, China's rare earth demand will maintain a growth rate of 7.8%, 2017 to 2020, rare earth (equivalent oxide) consumption is expected to reach 109,000 tons, 118,000 tons, 127,000 tons, 137,000 tons. Due to the downstream consumption of rare earth continued to grow, driven by strong demand, the inventory of rare earth prices will also be expected to shock up.
In fact, the development of emerging industries and rare earth industries are complementary. Since the release of the State Council's "13th Five-year Strategic Emerging Industry Development Plan" by the State Council in November 2016, with the economic development in our country entering a new normal, the growth rate of strategic emerging industries has picked up in an all-round way, the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, and the industries Investment continues to heat up and industrial innovation continues to emerge, becoming an important force for the stable operation of the macroeconomy.
Under the background that the country faces transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and economic development has entered a new normal, the key strategic materials will become the top priority in the new phase. The industry is expected to usher in a sustained breakthrough. Among them, rare earth magnetic materials and aerospace equipment materials have become the key breakthrough targets in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and their industrialization and localization will be accelerated.
In recent years, the national strategic position of new materials industry has also been continuously improved. Through the "Made in China 2025" program document, the "New Material Industry Development Guide" guidance document and various industries planning and development mission planning, the state has set up a new material policy pyramid and given new The whole industry chain of materials, all-round guidance. Among them, advanced basic materials, key strategic materials and frontier new materials have become the key development directions.
As one of the new materials of rare earth, in the future development of China's seven strategic emerging industries, almost every industry should be used, all have their needs. And this kind of demand is often irreplaceable. In other words, the development of new industries will take off the wings of the rare earth industry, because increasing the effective supply will further activate the demand for rare earth, to ensure the sustainable development of rare earth in our country an important role.
From the industry point of view, the future of rare earth industry will become the pillar industries of energy saving and environmental protection. Rare earth in the exhaust gas purification, waste disposal, cleaner production and other fields have important applications. In the high-end manufacturing industry, rare earths will enhance the advanced rail transportation equipment and make them bigger and stronger intelligent manufacturing equipment. The future goal is to promote manufacturing intelligent, sophisticated and green. High-speed rail will become a new application of rare earth development. Rare earth permanent magnet motor will improve efficiency, greatly saving energy; and rare earth magnesium, rare earth aluminum alloy can be used for high-speed rail body, doors and windows and other structural parts.
From the demand point of view, the emerging field of steady growth in demand for rare earth materials, including NdFeB magnetic material is the focus. New energy vehicles by 2020 is expected to bring neodymium iron boron 4500 tons to 7500 tons of incremental space. The development of new energy vehicles should be the future of the megatrends, and will lead to a large number of rare earth industry related industries to flourish. Especially for hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, miniaturization of high-power drive motor is necessary, and now these motors have to use large amounts of rare earth.
According to the development plan of energy-saving and new energy automobile industry, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million by 2020, and that of medium / heavy hybrid passenger cars will account for more than 50% of the annual sales volume of passenger cars. Among them, Ni-MH battery is the core power source for hybrid vehicles.
Source: China Nonferrous Network